(last updated on December 20, 2020)
This is what the Indian Solar Industry looked like towards the end of 2019:
In 2019, the renewable energy sector in India was a fast-growing sector with lots of promise and potential, and with the increased support of the Government and improved economics, the sector also became attractive from an investor’s perspective.
Now that we have painted a picture of India’s solar power industry in 2019, we can dive deeper into the events taking place in the year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent effects on the solar industry.
> 3rd January 2020, China officially notifies WHO of a coronavirus outbreak
> 30th January 2020, India confirms its first coronavirus case
Imports of solar power equipment in January 2020 decline by about 70% as compared to imports in January 2019 due to China’s lockdown.
> 11th February 2020, WHO names the disease COVID-19, short for “Coronavirus Disease 2019”
The market cycle of energy consumption is as follows: electricity consumers pay bills to Power Distribution Companies (DISCOMs) who then have to pay dues to Power Generation Companies (Gencos). Over the years, DISCOMs have not been able to procure funds to purchase the power they supply from Power Generation Companies (Gencos) and have been accumulating a debt of more than Rs. 90, 000 crores as of February 2020.
> 11th March 2020, WHO declares COVID-19 as a pandemic
> 24th March 2020, PM Modi announces 21-day nationwide lockdown
> 27th March 2020, Migrant workers across India start walking back home
This is because most commercial and office spaces are forced to close and hence, no longer require electricity as people begin transitioning to the “new normal” and working from home.
The supply side also faces barriers due to the pandemic. 85% of labor in solar parks are migrants, and hence, the migrant exodus as well as disruptions in global supply chains of solar equipment cause delays in projects. COVID-19 begins to affect every aspect of the renewable energy cycle from the supply chain down to the installers.
> 1st April 2020, the World Bank estimates that COVID-19 could push 11 million people into unemployment-related poverty
> 12th April 2020, renewable energy project developers and DISCOMs are granted an extension on commission and repayment deadlines, through the force majeure clause
> 14th April 2020, PM Modi extends India’s nationwide lockdown once again until 3rd May 2020
> 15th April 2020, The International Monetary Fund warns that the world is facing its worst economic crisis
India’s electricity demand falls by approximately 30% during the April-May period, owing to the lack of energy usage by industrial and commercial establishments.
The economic and health crises push millions of people into the unemployment sector, causing a lack of financial liquidity, i.e, consumers do not have the money to invest in solar panels, in turn causing DISCOMs to face even greater losses. In April, DISCOMs debt snowballs to Rs. 1.17 Lakh crores.
> 1 May 2020, India’s nationwide lockdown is extended until May 17th 2020
> 13th May 2020, WHO says this virus “may never go away” and therefore will become endemic. Hence, it is imperative to adjust to the “new normal”
> 17th May 2020, India’s nationwide lockdown is extended again until May 31st 2020
> 19th May 2020, India reports 100,000 confirmed cases
> 20th May 2020, Super Cyclone Amphan hits East India
> 21st May 2020, a day after the cyclone, power returns to some Sunderbans villages that use solar energy, while many other parts of the region do not regain power for weeks
> 26th May 2020, Severe heatwave conditions impact North and Central India
Severe weather conditions such as the cyclones and heatwave remind the nation, not only that climate change is still looming but also, of the importance of electricity for day-to-day functioning in these extreme conditions. Adding both together made people acknowledge the power of renewable sources of energy.
Looking at the consumer side of the situation, there were two opposite electricity readings reflected in bills. On one hand, under lockdown, local electricity companies had to estimate electricity bills for March, April, and May due to the ban on movement preventing on-site meter readings. The estimates were based on the Winter months, thus leading to lower electricity bills even with higher electricity usage in the Summer months. On the other hand, due to work from home mandates during the Summer,as site readings could begin, it was found that residential electricity bills were higher than usual.
In terms of the effects on solar energy providers, according to the May 2020 CRISIL report, projects worth Rs 160 billion, totaling 3 GW of solar power capacity, could be hampered by delays in 2020.
> 3rd June 2020, Cyclone Nisarga hits West India
> 8th June 2020, India lifts lockdown restrictions (Unlock 1.0), despite fears of a surge; PM Modi launches Atma Nirbhar Bharat Campaign
> 12th June 2020, India overtakes the United Kingdom to become the fourth worst-hit nation in the world
> 29th June 2020, the global COVID-19 death toll surpasses 500,000
Again looking at the consumer side of the story for this month, as the lockdown eases, electricity companies start sending out meter readers to measure actual consumption. The deficit from the previous months is added to this month’s bill leading to exponentially high electricity bills across the nation.
Subsequently, with easing restrictions on movement, solar companies begin procuring and setting up solar plants once again; though at a much slower rate owing to the lack of labor, difficulty in movement of goods, and delays in site inspections and approvals.
> 2nd July 2020, India further lifts lockdown restrictions (Unlock 2.0), despite surpassing 600,000 coronavirus cases and 17,834 deaths
> 6th July 2020, India overtakes Russia to become the third-worst hit nation in the world
> 10th July 2020, PM Modi vows to end India’s dependence on imported solar equipment under his Atma Nirbhar Bharat Campaign while inaugurating Asia’s largest solar project in Rewa, Madhya Pradesh
> 14th July 2020, Moderna, the first potential coronavirus vaccine tested in humans, yields promising results.
> 17th July 2020, India’s COVID-19 count crosses 1 Million
The country’s solar energy industry needed a stimulus package, and the government has provided one by vowing to purchase only domestic solar products as well as imposing tariffs and non-tariff barriers on imported solar equipment. This could ensure that India stays on track with its clean energy goals if domestic solar manufacturers can efficiently bolster the supply side of the industry. But, if there is a deficit in domestic supply, having barriers to imports will make solar energy more expensive for the end consumer further curtailing their interest in solar.
Overall, the industry slowly seems to be breaking free of the pandemic-induced inertia.
> 6th August 2020, India’s COVID-19 count crosses 2 million
> 13th August 2020, WHO reports that COVID-19 is costing the global economy over $375 billion every month
> 30th August 2020, India becomes the first and only country to report 78,000 new cases in a single day making India’s COVID-19 outbreak the world’s fastest-growing
This month, prime minister Modi announced the mega initiative of “one sun, one world, one grid” which has an ambitious aim to create a trans-national electricity grid supplying solar power across the world. The idea behind this is that the sun does not set and is always shining in some parts of the world. Hence, integrating the grids would lead to greater power efficiency, lower project costs, and higher asset utilization.
> 6th September 2020, with 4.1 million cases, India overtakes Brazil to become the second worst-hit nation in the world
> 16th September 2020, India’s COVID-19 count crosses 5 million
In Q1 of this fiscal year, the Indian GDP shrank by -23.9%. The impact of this was felt by almost every Indian industry, including the solar industry. Amidst raw material and labor shortages brought on by the shrink in the GDP as well as government-sanctioned trade barriers on solar imports, Indian PV manufacturing leaders speak out about the need for a fiscal stimulus package, alternative supply chains as well as research into automation, i.e., an overhaul of the current functioning of the solar industry.
> 2nd October 2020, India’s COVID-19 death toll crosses 1 lakh
> 18th October 2020, India showed a steady and marked decline in COVID-19 cases indicating it has crossed its first peak
With easing government regulations as well as easing emotions with the reduction in daily COVID-19 case numbers, some big projects were announced by the Indian solar industry this month.
The Damodar Valley Corporation announced an exciting 1.8GW floating solar project in reservoirs in West Bengal and Jharkhand. Tapping into water surfaces in the country could generate 280GW of solar power according to The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and hence, is a step in the right direction. Simultaneously, UL, a leading global safety science company, unveiled a new state-of-the-art laboratory in Bangalore, India to complement the growing solar PV industry in India by providing testing and certification services.
> 18th November 2020, Pfizer’s COVID-19 phase 3 vaccine trials indicate 95% efficacy
> 29th November 2020, COVID-19 cases fall by 32% in November but India still has the second-highest number of cases globally
> 30th November 2020, Moderna COVID-19 phase 3 vaccine trials indicate 94.1% efficacy
With life continuing to return to normal, India added 399MW of solar capacity in the second quarter of FY 2020-2021, a 112% increase from the corresponding period of last year. Continuing this upswing, experts predict that India will be the leading contributor to the global expansion in renewable energy.
> 7th December 2020, India’s very own, Bharat Biotech conducts phase 3 trials with 26,000 participants
> 15th December 2020, India puts forth a vaccine deployment plan and begins training doctors
To end this year, five years after the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, PM Modi has said, “India will not only meet Paris Targets, but also exceed expectations.” He cited the steps taken by the solar industry and the path the Indian solar industry is on as one of the main drivers of this change.
The Way Forward
The choice of which path the renewable industry will take seems to be in our hands. We, consumers, producers, and other stakeholders, must act now in the following three areas in order to ensure that COVID-19 leads to greater climate reform:
JM Finn, a wealth management firm, predicts that the current crisis marks a farewell to the old economy of oil and banking stocks while signaling the rise of a new, tech-focused economy, which was already looming before the pandemic hit. Industries to look out for are digital banking, renewable energy, healthcare, and robotics provided we continue to question and change our existing ways of living. Therefore, it is how we react now to reach our climate goals that will determine how many more ‘the year 2020’s we will encounter. We must continue on our path towards a greener future!
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